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In our war with Russia, the Ukrainian offensive into the Russian Kursk region demonstrates that after more than two years, Ukraine is still capable of winning.
The main thing is to ensure the unity of the West and support for Ukraine at this crucial moment.
To understand the objectives of the Kursk operation, which began Aug. 6 across our northern border with Russia, it’s necessary to analyze what’s happening on the front lines. Russia is advancing and holding the initiative in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
The Ukrainian armed forces face the following military tasks: stopping the enemy’s advance, inflicting maximum losses and preventing Russian forces from achieving operational-strategic successes. The approach to achieving this is clear: Redeploy additional forces to the east, work with our Western partners to obtain more weapons, apply them on the battlefield and thereby halt the enemy.
However, there’s another approach to conducting a defensive operation. Defensive operations typically involve counterstrikes and counterattacks. Ideally, a counterstrike should be delivered not where the enemy has large forces and expects it, but where the enemy is unprepared, where their weak points are and where it could cause serious problems for them.
Accordingly, the first objective of the operation in the Kursk region is to aid the defense of our forces in the east. The events in Kursk will inevitably impact the eastern front. At the very least, this is because Russia will have to divert forces and reserves that they had intended to use in the Donetsk region.
The second task is to reduce Russia’s resources and capabilities to conduct combat operations.
Just this week, Moscow reported damage from a Ukrainian attack on a third bridge in Kursk, disrupting supply lines. But President Vladimir Putin hasn’t responded with military might to the largest invasion of Russia since World War II.
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On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked allies to allow their weapons to be used for deeper incursions into Russian territory.
“Putin’s response to the Kursk operation demonstrates that there is no rational reason to deny us true long-range capabilities,” Zelenskyy said.
After two weeks, he noted, the Ukrainian military has taken control of more than 90 settlements over 480 square miles in Kursk. The invasion has driven nearly 200,000 Russians from their homes.
The third task is the demoralization of the Russians, as they did not expect this and realized they have serious problems. According to Bloomberg, Russian army chief Valery Gerasimov knew about the impending attack on Kursk for two weeks prior to Aug. 6; intelligence warned him, but he did nothing and did not report to Putin.
An interesting case. Was this sabotage? Or was he simply afraid to report bad news to the Russian leader? After all, Putin set a political goal of achieving success in Donbas and does not want to hear that it is impossible. It would have required redeploying troops to Kursk.
Or maybe Gerasimov has had enough: He sees the state of the Russian army and understands that this needs to end and, therefore, sabotages, which at the same time aids Ukrainian defense forces.
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Ukraine’s fourth task is to boost our morale and demonstrate our capabilities to Western partners, which is the political aspect. This ensures a strong position for us at the future negotiation table.
Forcing Putin to make concessions can only be achieved through military pressure. This is exactly what is happening now.
It is also important to demonstrate the weakness of Putin’s power in Russia, exposing the true nature of his dictatorial regime.
When the conquest of foreign territories means more than protecting one’s own, when Putin’s army kills civilians in Ukraine and does not defend its own people on its own territory, the internal political problems of Russia become apparent to everyone.
Indeed, during the Ukrainian offensive two weeks ago, the Kursk population did not offer any resistance.
Perhaps if Russian propaganda were removed, many people would even oppose the war and Putin ‒ as they certainly did not expect what their leader called “the special military operation” would extend to their territory.
Oleksandr Musiienko is head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, Ukraine.